[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 21 09:42:16 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low for the last 
24 hours. Solar wind speed remained below 350 km/s by 
around 0900UT and then gradually rose to 450 km/s by the 
time of this report. The likely reason for this increase 
in the solar wind speed seems to be a solar sector boundary 
crossing. The effect of a recurrrent coronal hole is expected 
to keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the next three 
days. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) stayed slightly positive until around 0900UT and 
then showed minor to mild fluctuations on both sides of the 
normal value during the rest of the day. Solar activity is 
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12122232
      Darwin               7   21122232
      Townsville          10   22133233
      Learmonth           11   12133333
      Camden               6   11122232
      Canberra             8   11132233
      Hobart               6   11122232
      Casey(Ant)          10   23322232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0201 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Sep    15    Mostly unsettled to active on most locations, 
                isolated minor storm periods possible on high latitudes. 
23 Sep    15    Mostly unsettled to active on most locations, 
                isolated minor storm periods possible on high latitudes. 
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed solar wind stream 
from a recurrent coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic 
activity to unsettled to active levels from 21 to 23 September 
on most locations with some possibility of isolated minor 
storm conditions on high latitudes on 22 and 23 September. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Fair           Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
22 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
23 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and 
depressions in MUFs may be observed on most locations from 
21 to 23 September with the possibility of mild to moderate 
degradations in conditions on high latitudes during this 
period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Sep    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of degradations and depressions.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep     2    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
22 Sep     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
23 Sep     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Minor to mild and sometimes moderate degradations 
may be possible in the Southern Aus/NZ regions from 21 to 23 
September due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    32400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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