[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Sep             09 Sep             10 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: The solar wind has steadily decreased over the last 
24 hours to 480 km/s and is expected to continue to decrease 
to just under 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has fluctuated between +/-5nT over the last 24 
hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33222112
      Darwin               5   22122112
      Townsville          10   33223222
      Learmonth           10   33223222
      Camden               7   33122111
      Canberra             8   33223111
      Hobart               7   23232111
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   3212 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Sep     6    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Sep    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20-30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 10-20% during the local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night 
      when trace present on ionogram.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
09 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
10 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    66800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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