[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 2 09:36:03 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Sep             03 Sep             04 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind density remained at moderately elevated levels 
throughout the UT day while solar wind speed continued to increase 
from 400 km/s to 530 km/s at the time of this report (23:30 UT). 
This is due to the presence of a high speed solar wind stream 
associated with a geo-effective coronal hole region on the solar 
disk. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over the 
next several days with another coronal hole region likely to 
become geo-effective in around 48 hours. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low over the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22332222
      Darwin               8   22232222
      Townsville          11   22332332
      Learmonth           12   22332333
      Camden               7   11232222
      Canberra             7   11232222
      Hobart              10   21342222
      Casey(Ant)          12   23332233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1112 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Sep    22    active 
03 Sep    16    active 
04 Sep    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed throughout 
the UT day. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be active 
over the next 2 days due to the presence of two closely spaced 
geo-effective coronal hole regions on the solar disk. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
03 Sep      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Sep     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values 
03 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values 
04 Sep    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 31 August 
and is current for interval 2-3 September. Current indications 
are that the unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions over 
the next few days are unlikely to depress Maximum Usable Frequencies 
(MUFs) significantly. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    48400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list