[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 07

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER

STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN

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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Oct             01 Nov             02 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32211212
      Darwin               6   22211312
      Townsville           8   32222222
      Learmonth            7   32211312
      Camden               5   22211212
      Canberra             6   23211212
      Hobart               8   32321212
      Casey(Ant)          12   34322322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             14   2012 2254     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Nov     5    Quiet 
02 Nov    11    Quiet to unsettled with a possible isolated active 
                period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Oct   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during day with
      depressions to 30% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
01 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
02 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 29 October 
and is current for interval 30 October to 1 November. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 473 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    70200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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