[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 28 10:26:07 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated. The present coronal
hole wind stream appers to be in gradual decline.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 23233321
Darwin 9 22133312
Townsville 11 22333322
Learmonth 10 22233322
Camden 10 13233321
Canberra 12 -3143321
Hobart 11 13243321
Casey(Ant) 13 -4-33311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 3322 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity declined steadily but remains elevated
at 520 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF remained mostly neutral.
The resultant geomagnetic field was unsettled to active at high
latitudes with isolated storm intervals. The low to mid latitude
geomagnetic field remained at quiet to unsettled levels. Expect
similar conditions on day one, declining to generally quiet to
unsettled conditions days two and three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions at high latitudes
next two days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Oct -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
30 Oct -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions
around local dawn. Intervals of spread-F conditions observed
S Aus/Antarctic regions. Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Disturbances possible S Aus/Antarctic regions next
two days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 670 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 234000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list