[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar wind speed is presently at 390 km/s. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated 
between +/-3nT over the last 24 hours. AR 0972 has 5 spots and 
is not expected to produce any significant activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11122111
      Darwin               4   21122111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   11122102
      Camden               4   11122111
      Canberra             2   11012101
      Hobart               4   11122211
      Casey(Ant)           6   2-322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2321 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct     6    Quiet 
08 Oct     4    Quiet 
09 Oct     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagations conditions are considered poor for night 
time only at high latitudes due to no good trace being visible 
for 75% of the ionograms. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Oct    -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15-20%. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% during local day, 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night
      when trace on ionogram is visible.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions were were most likely depressed due to 
low ionisation of the ionosphere. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    67500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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