[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 15 09:45:00 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed remains
elevated near 600km/s due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream.
Expect the solar wind speed to gradually decline over the next
2-3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 33233322
Darwin 10 32223322
Townsville 11 23323322
Learmonth 10 32233321
Camden - --------
Canberra 9 23223321
Hobart 11 33233312
Casey(Ant) 13 ---33323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3312 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov 6 Quiet
17 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field continued to be Unsettled 14 Nov
in response to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. Periods
of Active to Minor Storm conditions were observed at high latitudes.
Expect generally Unsettled geomagnetic conditions to continue
15 Nov with a return to Quiet conditions 16 Nov. The high latitude
regions may experience periods of Active geomagnetic conditions
15 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov -25 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Nov -20 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
17 Nov -20 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Widespread depressions in MUFs continue across Australian/
NZ/SW-Pacific region due to lack of solar ionisation. Equatorial
and N.Aus regions showed a limited recovery from recent days.
Expect regional ionosphere to remain depressed for at least next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list