[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 4 10:19:52 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions were normal over the last 24 hours
and are expected to remain normal over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21212111
Darwin 4 21112112
Townsville 5 22212121
Learmonth 3 21112001
Camden 2 11112001
Canberra 3 10212101
Hobart 2 11112100
Casey(Ant) 8 33322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0111 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 5 Quiet
05 Nov 4 Quiet
06 Nov 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
05 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
06 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions have been observed
at low and mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. Expect similar
conditions for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
05 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
06 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 1 November
and is current for interval 2-4 November. Significant depressions
in Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) have been observed across
all Pacific, Equatorial/PNG and Australian regions. Depressions
are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 43700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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