[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 31 09:50:18 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 74/11 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours with a
C2.0 class event occuring at 1415UT that was not associated with
any region currently on disk. Region 958 has not increased in
size or magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed declined from 400km/s
to be 320km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north/south
component of the IMF, fluctuated between +/- 2nT over the UT
day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 4 11221111
Canberra 1 01101100
Hobart 2 01011111
Casey(Ant) 4 12121211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1110 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 6 Quiet
01 Jun 6 Quiet
02 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes
for the last 24 hours, with with the exception of notable depressed
MUF's for low latitudes during local dawn. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 5 Depressed by 20% during local day for Equatorial
and Northern AUS regions. Otherwise near predicted
values.
01 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime depressions observed for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions. Mostly normal HF conditions for Southern Australia/NZ
and Antarctic regions. These conditions are expected to continue
for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 38600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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