[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 24 09:45:32 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
A Type II radio sweep was observed at Learmonth Solar Observatory
at 07:22 UT associated with a B5.3 x-flare from spot region 956
(N02W61). A weak CME was also observed in STEREO images at this
time. The CME shock speed estimated from the radio sweep was
400 km/s. Solar wind speed and solar wind density were at elevated
levels throughout the UT day. Wind speed is around 500 km/s and
wind density around 10 p/cc at the time of this report (23:30
UT). Periods of strong sustained southward Bz were observed in
the IMF from 6 - 12 UT and from 19 UT to the time of this report
(23:30UT) causing enhanced merging of the IMF with the geomagnetic
field and significant geomagnetic disturbances at all latitudes.
A equatorial coronal hole is expected to become geo-effective
over the next 12 hours causing further elevation of the solar
wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 25 34453235
Darwin 18 34343234
Townsville 21 34443334
Learmonth 31 35454345
Camden 22 23553234
Canberra 27 34553235
Hobart 25 34553234
Casey(Ant) 27 333532-6
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Hobart 94 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1212 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 20 active
25 May 25 active
26 May 20 active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field ranged from Quiet to Minor Storm
levels over the UT day. Minor Storm conditions were observed
at mid and high latitudes and Active conditions at low latitudes
between 6 and 12 UT and from 19 UT to the time of this report
(23:30 UT). This activity was in response to corresponding periods
of steady southwards Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) producing
enhanced and steady reconnection of the IMF with the geomagnetic
field. Expect continuing Unsettled - Active geomagnetic conditions
over the next few days with a chance of Minor Storm conditions.
A recurrent coronal hole will move into geoeffective position
over the next 12 hours which may further add to geomagnetic activity
if more periods of sustained southward Bz occur.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were close to predicted monthly values
at all latitudes. Significant Sproadic E was observed at low
to mid latitudes for a number of hours just after local sunset
causing screening of the upper ionospheric layers.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 26 near predicted monthly values
25 May 30 near predicted monthly values
26 May 27 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Usable frequencies were close to predicted monthly values
across all Australasian regions. Significant Sproadic E was observed
in Equatorial/Pacific and Northern Australian regions for a number
of hours just after local sunset causing screening of the upper
ionospheric layers.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
No data avaiable at this time
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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