[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 20 09:42:58 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Spot region 956 (N03W07) produced some B-class Xray flares, the
most significant of which was a B9.5 at 19/1302UT. A disappearing
solar filament was observed in this region at 19/1231UT and a
Type II radio sweep with speed 882km/s at 19/1252UT. SOHO LASCO
imagery is not yet available for this period to confirm the CME.
This will be confirmed or otherwise in tomorrow's solar and
geophysical report. Solar wind speeds remain elevated (currently
620km/s) however the main geoeffective part of the coronal hole
wind stream has passed and solar wind parameters are expected to
gradually return to normal levels over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 8 22222322
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 9 23222322
Learmonth 11 23323322
Camden 6 22222221
Canberra 8 22232321
Hobart 8 32232221
Casey(Ant) 13 33333--2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 83 (Minor storm)
Canberra 66 (Active)
Hobart 79 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 3244 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 May 6 Quiet
22 May 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally Quiet to Unsettled
over the UT day in response to a coronal hole wind stream. Isolated
Active periods were observed at high latitudes stations. The
main geoeffective edge of the coronal hole wind stream has passed
and the geomagnetic field is expected to settle back to Quiet
conditions by 21 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Frequencies were generally near predicted monthly values
19 May, apart from some minor MUF depressions in the PNG/Niue
region overnight. Spread-F was observed in some S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic
stations likely related to enhanced geomagnetic activity. These
conditions are expected to continue 20 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 16 near predicted monthly values
21 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 19 May. Some periods
of Spread-F were observed at mid-high latitude stations. Equatorial
stations suffered some minor MUF depressions. HF conditions are
expected to be much the same 20 May with minor MUF depressions
at low latitudes and further Spread-F possible at mid-high latitudes.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions 21 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 243000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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