[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 17 09:36:31 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Region 956 (N01E36) has significantly increased in area
and magnetic complexity over the last 24 hours. This region produced
a C2.9 Xray flare at 16/1741UT and numerous B-class Xray flares.
AR956 is now classified as a Dac sunspot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta
magnetic class. Due to its complexity, isolated M-class flares
are possible from this spot group. The other spot group on the
visibile disk (AR955, S09W72) is in decline and flaring is unlikely.
A CME observed on 15/1853UT off the north-east limb may have
had an Earthward-directed component although observations are
not conclusive on this. If so the associated shock in the solar
wind would be expected to arrive late 17 / early 18 May. A small
equatorial coronal hole is currently located at central meridian
the effects of which are expected to arrive on May 19. Current solar
wind speed is low and IMF Bz fluctuating about 0nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12111011
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 5 12212122
Learmonth 4 12211012
Camden 1 01100001
Canberra 1 01100001
Hobart 1 01000011
Casey(Ant) 5 13211112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 3 Quiet
18 May 3 Quiet
19 May 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was very quiet over the UT day
and is expected to be quiet for the next two days (17-18 May),
however there is a small chance that a CME observed on 15 May
had an Earthward-directed component which could produce an isolated
period of Unsettled-Active conditions on 18 May. A widespread
increase in geomagnetic activity is likely on 19 May due to the
arrival of a high speed coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Frequencies should be near predicted monthly values
17-18 May and enhanced 19 May, particularly in the N.Aus/PNG/Niue
regions. Spread F likely at all latitudes during night hours
and may degrade communications. SWFs possible 17 May in the sunlit
hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 19 near predicted monthly values
18 May 20 near predicted monthly values
19 May 30 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night time spread F was asgain observed at all latitudes.
Spread F is likely to continue to be present at night and may
degrade communications. HF conditions are otherwise expected
to be normal 17-18 May with MUF enhancements possible 19 May
particularly at equatorial and low latitudes. SWFs possible 17
May in the sunlit hemisphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 41500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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