[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 4 09:46:31 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Further C-class flares are possible from region 953.
Solar wind speeds have remained below 360 km/s over the past
24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase during 6
May as a coronal hole rotates into a geoffective position. A
westward directed CME was observed during 3 May, most likely
associated with the C-class flare activity of region 953. There
is the small chance of a glancing impact during 5-6 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 11111321
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 2 01111111
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 5 12211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 5 Quiet
05 May 5 Quiet
06 May 18 Mostly unsettled with possible active periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity should be mostly quiet for 4 May
with activity expected to increase 5-6 May due to the glancing
impact from recent CME activity and/or a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next few days with the small chance of further SWFs.
Slight depressions are possible from 6 May due to an anticipated
mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 2 May
and is current for interval 3-4 May (SWFs) . MUFs should be mostly
near predicted monthly values over the next few days with the
small chance of further SWFs. Slight depressions are possible
from 6 May due to an anticipated mild increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 39200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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