[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 18 10:24:13 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind
is slowly decreasing and is presently approximately 500 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated
between +/- 2nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22232210
Townsville 7 22232221
Learmonth 9 22333220
Camden 6 22232210
Canberra 7 12233210
Hobart 7 22233111
Casey(Ant) 10 33332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 68 (Active)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3411 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 6 Quiet
19 Mar 5 Quiet
20 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Over the next several days the magnetic field should
remain at quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
19 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions today (18 March)
with the possibility of mild depressions due unsettled geomagnetic
conditions yesterday and no sunspots. The following two days
may have mild depressions at low latitudes due to low sunspot
numbers.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions for the next several days
in the Australian region with a possibility of mild depressions
in the equatorial region due to low sunspot numbers.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 628 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 163000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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