[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 12 10:52:06 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have increased during the past 24
hours up to approximately 430 km/s. This is most likely due to
the arrival of an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
A further increase in solar wind speeds is likely over the next
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 11232332
Darwin - --------
Townsville 11 12233333
Learmonth - --------
Camden 8 11222332
Canberra 7 00123332
Hobart 8 11132332
Casey(Ant) 9 23-32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Camden 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2111 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
13 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
14 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominantly
unsettled levels with possible active periods for 12-13 March
due to a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Slight depressions were observed at times during 11
March, otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the
chance of mild depressions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% were observed at times during 11
March, otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the
chance at times of 10-20% depressions for 12 March and 5-15%
depressions for 13 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 37000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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