[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: A westward directed CME observed during 7 March is not 
expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds remained mildly 
elevated during 7 March due to a recurrent coronal hole. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33333322
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville          12   32333322
      Learmonth           14   32333333
      Camden              11   22333322
      Canberra            12   22334322
      Hobart              15   23334422
      Casey(Ant)          20   34543322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18   4523 3213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    10    Unsettled 
09 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
10 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled levels expected for 8 March due to 
a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream. Mostly quiet to 
unsettled conditions expected for 9-10 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mild depressions possible at times for mid-high latitudes 
for 8 March. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Mar     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar     5    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions of 5-15% are expected at times for 
southern Aus/NZ regions for 8 March. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:   208000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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