[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 3 09:32:54 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with just the single minor 
flare from AR944. Activity is expected to remain at very low 
levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
has mostly fluctuated between +/-2nT for the last 24 hours. The 
solar wind speed declined from 600km/s to 400km/s over the period, 
the tail end effects of a recurrent solar coronal hole, and should 
return to nominal levels today. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11212122
      Darwin               3   10211112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   11212121
      Canberra             4   10212112
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   4332 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     2    Quiet 
04 Mar     4    Quiet 
05 Mar     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity returned to Quiet levels yesterday 
(02 Mar) as the Earth moved out of a high speed coronal wind 
stream. Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail next three 
days (03-05 Mar). 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: HF conditions remain mostly normal. Some strong MUF 
enhancements occurred at low latitudes, particularly over the 
local night. The ionosphere in the high latitude regions remained 
slightly depressed, conditions which are expected to continue 
next 3 days (03-05 Mar). HF conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal at all other latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Mar    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
04 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions remain mostly normal. Some strong 
MUF enhancements occurred in the equatorial/PNG region over the 
local night. The ionosphere in the Southern Australian and Antarctic 
regions was slightly depressed, particularly during the local 
day. These conditions are expected to prevail next three days 
(03-05 Mar). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 607 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   145000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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