[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 1 10:33:26 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
over the next several days. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has mostly fluctuated between +/-5nT for the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed ranged bewteen 600-700km/s over
the period, elevated due to a recurrent solar coronal hole. Solar
wind speeds are expected to remain elevated but slowly decline
over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 18 34433333
Darwin 12 33333222
Townsville 15 33343233
Learmonth 21 44443333
Canberra 15 34433222
Casey(Ant) 19 34433433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Hobart 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 0032 1343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled. Active periods at high latitudes
02 Mar 6 Quiet
03 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole remains in geoeffective position
producing yesterday's (28 Feb) unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
Minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. Expect
geomagnetic activity to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels with
isolated Active periods at high latitudes today (29 Feb) and
tomorrow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Despite increased geomagnetic activity, ionospheric
conditions remained mostly normal. Strong enhancements occurred
in the equatorial/PNG and Northern Australian regions, particularly
over the local night. Minor depressions occurred over the Antarctic
regions. Expect mostly normal HF conditions to prevail in the
Australian region with further equatorial enhancements likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 25 Mostly near predicted monthly values / variably
enhanced at equatorial latitudes
02 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values / enhanced 10%
03 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values / enhanced 10%
COMMENT: HF conditions remain mostly normal. Some strong enhancements
occurred at low latitudes, particularly over the local night.
Minor depressions occurred at high latitudes due to enhanced
geomagnetic activity. Expect mostly normal HF conditions to prevail
with further equatorial enhancements and isolated high latitude
depressions likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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