[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 28 09:30:36 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Low
Flares: C1/1800 UT.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: A C1 flare from unknown location occurred at 1800 UT.
The solar wind speed is currently around 390 km/s. A coronal
hole is nearing a geoeffective position and is expected to increase
the solar wind speed later today and tomorrow.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22110211
Darwin 4 22111211
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 22210200
Camden 2 20100101
Canberra 2 21100200
Hobart 2 11100200
Casey(Ant) 6 23211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1002 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 14 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
29 Jun 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled although an isolated
active period is possible.
30 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active levels expected today and possibly 29th
due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Winter hemisphere communications likely to experience
night time degradations due to spread F.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
Port Moresby 09-13 UT. Depressions to 30% observed at
Vanimo 00-09 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
observed at Darwin and Learmonth 00-06 UT. Night
spread F observed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with night spread F.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with spread F day and
night.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 5 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
29 Jun 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
30 Jun 10 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at low latitudes. Spread
F likely to degrade communications, particularly at night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 53300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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