[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 17 09:39:00 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. The effect
of the coronal has further weakened. The solar wind speed
gradaully decreased from 520 to 460 km/s over the UT day
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations between +/- 4 nT
almost the whole day today. The effect of this coronal hole
is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours. A
possible effect of another recurrent coronal hole may start
to strengthen the solar wind stream from 19 June. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 13123211
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 8 13223222
Camden 5 12123110
Canberra 4 12113110
Hobart 6 13123111
Casey(Ant) 8 23223221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 63 (Active)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2321 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 5 Quiet
18 Jun 4 Quiet
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity reamained mostly at quiet
levels with some periods of unsettled levels recorded on
16 June. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet levels on 17 and 18 June. Quiet to unsettled levels
of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 19 June due the
possible effect of a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed at high latitude on
19 June due to some possibility of enhancement in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day. HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal on 17 and 18 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day with periods of
degradations,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods of
minor to significant depressions and degradations. .
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 14 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 14 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with
some possibility of minor degradations on some locations in
the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 19 June due to some possibility
of enhancement in geomagnetic activity levels on 19 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 574 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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