[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 14 09:48:53 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. The
anticipated effect of the coronal hole seems to have
started as the solar wind speed showed a gradual increase
from 300 km/s to 440 km/s after 1400UT until around 2300UT.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained close to the normal value for most
part of the UT day today with some fluctuations (between
+8/-7 nT) recorded in the last few hours of the day. The
effect of this coronal hole is expected to keep the solar
wind stream strengthened on 14 and 15 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 11122221
Darwin 4 11111221
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 12222331
Camden 4 01122121
Canberra 3 00022221
Hobart 5 10023221
Casey(Ant) 5 11221221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 16 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
possible on high latitudes.
15 Jun 12 Mostly unsettled to active.
16 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a recurrent corohal hole,
geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at
unsettled to active levels on 14 and 15 June with some
possibility of isolated minor storm periods at high
latitudes on 14 June. A gradual decline in the geomagnetive
activity level is expected thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed at high latitude and
some mid latitude locations on 14 and possibly 15 June due
to an anticipated enhancement in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values during local
day,
Depressed by 25% to near predicted monthly values during local
night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 25% over the UT day
with periods of degradations in HF condtions.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 12 near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions with some possibility of minor
degradations on some locations in the Southern Aus/NZ regions
on 14 and 15 June due to an anticipated enhancement in
geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 17200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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