[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 3 09:43:49 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.9    0611UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    1035UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
two M-class events from region 960. These consisted of a M2.5 
at 0611UT and a M1.0 at 1035UT. Solar wind speed has risen from 
Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, ranged between 0 and 
10nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to increase 
over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Further M-class 
flares are expected from region 960 due to its magnetic complexity. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211112
      Darwin               6   22221222
      Townsville           8   23321222
      Learmonth            8   23321222
      Camden               4   22210111
      Canberra             4   22210111
      Hobart               3   12210101
      Casey(Ant)           6   22311112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2211 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
05 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels over the last 
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the 
next 2 days, with an expected increase in activity due to coronal 
hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed. Similar conditions 
expected for the next 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    10    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jun    10    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jun    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Daytime depressions observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions. Normal conditions observed for Southern Australia/NZ 
regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly 
normal conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with continued 
daytime depressions for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Possible 
SWF's with the increase in solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    57700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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