[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 8 09:47:49 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: There was an observed increase in background solar X-ray
flux as new region 963 rotated onto the visible solar disK.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12110111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 4 12210122
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 2 12100011
Hobart 2 12100011
Casey(Ant) 5 22211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 5 Quiet
09 Jul 5 Quiet
10 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The observed geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed at high
latitudes, with isolated active periods. Isolated minor storm
intervals observed late in the UT day at high latitudes only
following a southward trend in the IMF Bz component. Expect mostly
quiet conditions next two days wth the chance of isolated unsettled
periods at high latitudes. Recurrence suggests active conditions
possible on Jul 11 due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes day three in
association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable, with localised enhancements/disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic
region. Isolated periods of sporadic-E conditions S Aus/S
Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect mostly normal conditions next
two days. Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Increasing disturbance possible day three S Aus/Antarctic
regions in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 98400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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