[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 1 09:02:41 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily throughout the UT
day from 550 to 450 km/s. Solar activity was Very Low. A small
equatorial coronal hole region is likely to become geo-effective
in around 48 hours producing moderately elevated wind speeds
and unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 6 23221112
Learmonth 3 22211000
Camden 2 22110001
Canberra 2 22110000
Hobart 2 221100-0
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Camden 120 (Major storm)
Canberra 83 (Minor storm)
Hobart 123 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 13 2121 3253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 5 Quiet
02 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A small equatorial coronal hole region is likely to
become geo-effective in around 48 hours producing some unsettled
geomagnetic conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Winter hemisphere communications are likely to experience
night time degradations due to spread F.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 16 near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 16 near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of around 20% were observed during local
daylight hours in Equatorial PNG, Pacific and Far Northern Australian
regions. Spread F is likely to degrade communications, particularly
at night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 49500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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