[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 07

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              90/34





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21212111
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   21212202
      Camden               3   10212111
      Canberra             2   10211101
      Casey(Ant)           8   33322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0001 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Jan    18    active 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jan    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    36800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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