[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 25 10:38:04 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
a few minor B-class flares from region 939. There was also a 
long duration B9.0 flare at 1452UT most likely from returning 
region 933 that is yet to rotate onto disk. An associated CME 
is also visible in the LASCO imagery from 1518UT onwards. Solar 
wind speed continues to decline from 390km/s at 0000UT to be 
360km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuated between 
+/-3nT throughout the UT day. An increase in solar activity is 
possible over the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Darwin               2   111100--
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            3   11200211
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             2   00110102
      Casey(Ant)           8   23-32212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan     6    Quiet 
26 Jan     6    Quiet 
27 Jan     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests quiet conditions can be expected 
for the next few days. No geoeffective coronal holes or earth 
directed CME's observed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 
24 hours with some notable depressed periods over all latitudes. 
Instances of sporadic E observed for low to mid latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jan     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
26 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 
27 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for all regions observed 
in last 24 hours. Night-time depressed periods observed for Northern 
AUS/Equatorial regions as well as some disturbed periods for 
Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Sporadic E also noted 
for these regions as well. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    71800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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