[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 360 and 
460 km/s, and is currently about 400 km/s. The Bz component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/- 
5 nT over the last 24 hours. Region 933 (S02W62) has produced 
minor flares over the 24 hours, the largest, a C1.7 at 0951 UT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23232312
      Darwin               8   22231312
      Townsville          10   23232322
      Learmonth           12   23342312
      Camden               8   23231311
      Canberra            10   23332311
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--43322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1011 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan     5    Quiet 
12 Jan     5    Quiet 
13 Jan     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Sporadic E has been observed in the Australasian region 
over the past day. HF communications may be disrupted/degraded 
by sporadic E formation at times over the next 24 hours. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Jan    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 60%
      observed at Port Moresby and Vanimo 11-18 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
      observed at Casey at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Sporadic E may affect HF communications at times. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    66200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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