[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 4 10:36:15 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Isolated C-class flares possible from regions 10933
and 10935. Solar wind speed remains around 650 km/s under the
influence of a coronal hole. Solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated for most of 04 January. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between
+/- 5nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 23334323
Darwin 12 23233323
Townsville 14 23334323
Learmonth 20 34335333
Camden 14 23334323
Canberra 14 23334323
Hobart 14 23334323
Casey(Ant) 24 ---54333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Camden 62 (Active)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 84 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 19 4424 5323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
05 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 2 January and
is current for interval 3-4 January. Mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels are expected to continue over the next 24 hours
due to the affects of a coronal hole solar wind stream. Higher
latitudes will be mostly affected by the elevated activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal-poor Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for 04 January
at high latitudes, otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal. HF conditions communications may have been effected
at low and high latitudes due to Sporadic-E, this trend may continue
for 04 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 2 January
and is current for interval 3-4 January. Mild depressions are
possible atgh latitudes for the next UT day, otherwise HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal for the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E
conditions may affect HF comms at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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