[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 23 10:38:19 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: New region 944 (S10E75) was numbered today. Bz of the 
IMF has been mostly southward since ~14 UT but is likely to return 
to fluctating around neutral over the next few hours. The solar 
wind speed is currently around 290 km/s. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111212
      Darwin               3   21001112
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            4   22001212
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             1   11000111
      Casey(Ant)           6   23211212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0100 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb     4    Quiet 
24 Feb     4    Quiet 
25 Feb    28    Activity increasing to active levels with the 
                possibility of isolated minor storm periods. 

COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole is likely to increase activity 
in the geomagnetic field to active, with the chance of isolated 
minor storm levels, on 25 Feb. Active levels are likely for 26 
to 27 Feb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
24 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
25 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Similar conditions to today are expected to persist. 
Depressions in MUFs are possible late on 25 Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Feb     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      10 to 13 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      11 to 16 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb    11    Mostly near predicted monthly values at all
		latitudes.
24 Feb    11    Mostly near predicted monthly values at all
                latitudes.
25 Feb     0    Mostly near predicted monthly values at all
		latitudes. Possible depressions to 40% later. 

COMMENT: There may be some isolated depressions at low latitudes 
during the nights over the next three days. Expected geomagnetic 
activity on 25 Feb may cause dpressions late on that day although 
the effect is most likely to occur on 26 Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    34700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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