[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 18 10:04:37 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 520 to
450 km/s, thus showing a further continued weakening in the
coronal hole induced solar wind stream. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor (mostly between +/-3 nT) fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value throughout the day. Solar activity is
expected to remain very low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 23223312
Darwin 9 22223313
Townsville 10 23223322
Learmonth 14 33225312
Camden 9 13223312
Canberra 9 23223312
Casey(Ant) 13 3-433321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 86 (Minor storm)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1221 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 5 Quiet
19 Feb 5 Quiet
20 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% for some time during local night.
Depressed by 25% for some time after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most locations across the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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