[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 16 10:20:32 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase
from 600 to 730 km/s during the first 9 hours of the UT
day today and then a gradual decrease to 600 km/s by the
time of this report (around 2300UT). The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
showed minor (mostly between +/-3 nT) fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value throughout the day.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the
next few days. The effect of the coronal hole is expected
to keep the solar wind stream strenghened on 16 February
with a continued gradual decline.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 32332222
Darwin 8 22322222
Townsville 11 23332232
Learmonth 12 33332232
Camden 7 22222222
Canberra 9 22332222
Casey(Ant) 11 4--32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 4333 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
17 Feb 5 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible.
18 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The strengthening of the solar wind speed and
periods of negative Bz due to the coronal hole effect,
contributed to the enhancements in the geomagnetic activity
levels on some mid and high latitude locations today. The
coronal hole effect and hence the geomagnetic activity is
expected to continue to show a gradual decline on 16 and
17 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations for the next three days with
some possibility of minor degradations and MUF depressions
on high latitude locations on 16 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day for some time,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn for some time.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day for some time,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 9 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 11 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most locations across the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days with some possibility of minor degradations and
MUF depressions on 16 February in the Southern Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 682 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 244000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list