[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed continued to decline to around 340 km/s by late 
in the UT day and is currently stable. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low for the next few days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22121012
      Darwin               4   22120012
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            5   21------
      Camden               4   12121012
      Canberra             3   12020002
      Casey(Ant)           5   --321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1200 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb     5    Quiet 
06 Feb     5    Quiet 
07 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is at Quiet levels and is expected 
to remain Quiet over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were close to normal throughout the UT 
day at all latitudes. Numerous short lived cases of sporadic 
E were observed at low and mid latitudes throughout the UT day, 
causing partial blanketing and in some cases complete blanketing 
of HF frequencies. Similar HF conditions are likely to be repeated 
over the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Feb    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb    12    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb    11    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was close to normal throughout the 
UT day across all Australasian regions. Numerous short lived 
cases of sporadic E were observed at all Equatorial/Pacific, 
Northern and Southern Australian stations throughout the UT day, 
indicating partial blanketing and in some cases complete blanketing 
of HF frequencies. Similar HF conditions are likely to be repeated 
over the next 24 hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    40900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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