[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 3 10:24:12 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed has continued its steady decline to around 450
km/s. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22211212
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth - --------
Camden 4 11211211
Canberra 4 02211211
Casey(Ant) 7 3--21222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Camden 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3233 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 5 Quiet
04 Feb 5 Quiet
05 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has returned to Quiet levels and
is expected to remain Quiet over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were slightly enhanced at low latitudes,
particularly during local late afternoon and night time hours.
Conditions were normal at mid and high latitudes. Widespread
cases of persistent and strong sporadic E were observed throughout
the UT day at low latitudes and early and late in the UT day
at mid latitudes, causing partial or complete blanketing of HF
frequencies. These conditions are likely to be repeated over
the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 13 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 11 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was normal to slightly enhanced
across all Australasian regions. Widespread cases of persistent
and strong sporadic E were observed throughout the UT day in
Equatorial/Pacific regions and early and late in the UT day in
all other Australian regions, causing partial or complete blanketing
of HF frequencies. These conditions are likely to be repeated
over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list