[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 30 10:39:58 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Dec             31 Dec             01 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               73/9               75/13
COMMENT: The solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind speeds declined 
gradually over the past 24 hours from approximately 400 km/s 
down to 350 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue 
to decline slowly over the next 24 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12111112
      Darwin               4   12111112
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            3   11111012
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             1   11100011
      Hobart               3   02111111
      Casey(Ant)           6   22321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   2200 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Dec     3    Quiet 
31 Dec     3    Quiet 
01 Jan     6    Mostly quiet with the chance of unsettled levels. 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the Australian 
region for the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Dec   -25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Dec   -25    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
31 Dec   -25    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
01 Jan   -25    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 29 December 
and is current for interval 30 December to 1 January. MUF depressions 
of up to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region 
over the past 24 hours. Blanketing Sporadic-E was again observed 
at times across the Australian region during the past 24 hours 
which may have effected HF propagation conditions. Continuing 
MUF depressions are expected at times over the Aus/NZ region 
for the next few days due to very low levels of solar activity, 
with significant depressions possible at times. Continuing sporadic-E 
expected at times for low-mid latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    69200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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