[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 6 10:23:35 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Dec             07 Dec             08 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Bz, the north/south 
component of the IMF, fluctuated between +/- 5 nT early in the 
UT day. Otherwise, solar wind parameters were at normal levels 
over the last 24 hours. Normal conditions are expected to continue 
for the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   31221112
      Darwin               4   21211112
      Townsville           8   22322222
      Learmonth            7   311-----
      Camden               4   21211111
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               5   21311111
      Casey(Ant)           9   4--31112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Dec     5    Quiet 
07 Dec     5    Quiet 
08 Dec     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Fluctuations in the solar wind caused active geomagnetic 
conditions at high latitudes only, early in the UT day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
07 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Dec   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Dec   -30    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
07 Dec   -30    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
08 Dec   -25    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions continued over all Australasian 
regions throughout the UT day. Isolated, short-lived cases of 
strong sporadic E were observed in all Australasian regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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