[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN

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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters have continued to decline. The 
solar wind is approximately 480 km/s at the time of report issue. 
A recurrent coronal hole is located near central meridian. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Mostly quiet. 

Estimated Indices 29 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212121
      Darwin               5   12212122
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            7   22223221
      Camden               3   11102111
      Canberra             3   11202111
      Hobart               4   11103111
      Casey(Ant)           9   33312222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Camden               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   ---6 4322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug     5    Quiet 
31 Aug     5    Quiet 
01 Sep    14    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods 
                possible. 

COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to increase on 1 September 
due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Aug     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions
      to 30% 04-08 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions
      to 25% 01-07 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug     9    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Aug     9    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night time communications. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 633 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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