[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 20 09:50:59 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: A new solar region rotating into view around the east
limb appears capable of C-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds
predominantly remained below 400 km/s during 19 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Darwin 5 12122212
Townsville 7 12223222
Learmonth 5 12113202
Camden 2 11012200
Canberra 3 11012201
Hobart 2 10012201
Casey(Ant) 5 22212211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 2000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 6 Quiet
21 Aug 5 Quiet
22 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the next
few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times for northern
regions during 19 August, otherwise mostly normal conditions
were observed. Spread F and sporadic E conditions were observed
at times at some stations during the past 24 hours and may have
resulted in degraded HF communications at times. Spread F and
sporadic E conditions may result in degraded HF communications
at times over the next few days otherwise mostly normal conditions
are expected. Mild depressions are possible at times for northern
regions for 20 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 49500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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