[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 18 09:38:57 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Aug             19 Aug             20 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    65/0               65/0               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 24 hours 
down to approximately 380 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to remain slightly elevated during the next 24-48 hours. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111021
      Darwin               4   12111122
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            3   12120021
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             1   11100011
      Hobart               2   11111011
      Casey(Ant)           7   33211122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2223 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Aug     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Aug     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed up to 15% at times during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread F and sporadic E conditions were observed at 
times at some stations during the past 24 hours and may have 
resulted in degraded HF communications at times, otherwise mostly 
normal conditions were observed. Spread F and sporadic E conditions 
may result in degraded HF communications at times over the next 
few days otherwise mostly normal conditions are expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    94300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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