[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 22 11:11:34 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain very low over the next few days. There 
are no visible spots on the solar disk. Solar wind speed continued 
to drop over the UT day to be just under 300km/s at the time 
of this report. The anticipated high speed coronal hole wind 
stream has not arrived although it remains possible that the 
Earth will pass through some part of the coronal hole wind stream 
in the next 24 hours. This is difficult to determine due to the 
unusual shape and location of the coronal hole. Recurrence suggests 
the solar wind speed in the leading edge of this stream is relatively 
low (<550km/s) so the geomagnetic impact may be small. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           5   22111122
      Learmonth            2   21100110
      Camden               1   01000011
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01000001
      Casey(Ant)           4   22210111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1111 1002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Apr     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
Quiet conditions to continue until the arrival of a recurrent 
high speed solar wind stream when geomagnetic conditions are 
likely to become mostly Unsettled, particularly at high latitudes. 
Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions 23 and a return to Quiet 
24 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day, expected 
to continue today (22 April). Unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
may result in degraded HF at high latitudes and variable HF 
conditions at low latitudes 23 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr     9    near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    11    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal 
over the UT day, expected to continue today (22 April). Some 
local MUF depressions are possible in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions 22-23 April associated with Unsettled geomagnetic conditions. 
Continuing Unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the wake of a 
coronal hole may push down the MUFs in the Australian region 
23 April but the effect should only be minor. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:    29100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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