[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 19 09:22:23 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain low over the next few days. AR952 has now
rotated off the visible disk. Solar wind speed ranged between
340-400km/s. A coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective
position late on 19 April resulting in significantly enhanced
solar wind speeds 20-22 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22111222
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 7 22221232
Camden 5 12111222
Canberra 5 12112222
Hobart 6 22112222
Casey(Ant) 7 22211223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1112 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 20 active
21 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally quiet at mid and
low latitudes over the UT day. Large fluctuations in IMF Bz occurred
during the second half of the UT day causing some high latitude
geomagnetic disturbance. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions
19 April. Geomagnetic activity may increase late in the UT day
with the expected arrival of a recurrent high speed coronal hole
wind stream. Subsequent Active conditions possible 20 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Some minor depressions observed at mid-high latitudes.
Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal over the UT day. Similar
conditions are expected for 19 April. Elevated geomagnetic activity
may result in disturbances at high latitudes 20-21 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 9 near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 7 near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 2 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
over the UT day. Some minor MUF depressions were observed in
the S.Aus region mostly during the local day. Expect mostly normal
conditions to continue today (19 April) with the chance of MUF
depressions in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 20-21 April associated
with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 59800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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