[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 17 09:16:40 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain low over the next few days with no active
regions on the visible solar disk. Solar wind parameters remain
at nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11001100
Darwin 3 21011111
Townsville 5 22111221
Learmonth 1 11001100
Camden 0 00001000
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 00001000
Casey(Ant) 3 21211100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2211 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 4 Quiet
18 Apr 4 Quiet
19 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Generally
quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at all latitudes over the
UT day. A recurrent coronal hole wind stream may result in elevated
geomagnetic activity on Apr 19.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at low latitudes. Otherwise
HF conditions mostly normal. Similar conditions are expected
for the next three days with the chance of variable conditions
at low to mid latitudes. Elevated geomagnetic activity may result
in disturbances at high latitudes day three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed mainly local day for Equatorial
region. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days with
the chance of MUF depressions for Equatorial/N Aus regions mainly
during local day. Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic
region on day three in association with elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 55000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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