[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 15 09:39:47 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain low over the next few days with no active 
regions on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed decreased 
from 380km/s at 0000UT to be 350km/s at the time of this report. 
Bz ranged between 0nT and 5nT for most of the UT day, with a 
southward swing to -4nT at 2000UT at which it currently remains. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12111112
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   23202212
      Camden               2   02101002
      Canberra             1   02100001
      Hobart               1   01100001
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1010 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr     4    Quiet 
16 Apr     4    Quiet 
17 Apr     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours with solar wind speed decreasing. Only southward 
IMF Bz period began at 2000UT and is currently at -4nT at the 
time of this report. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for next 
three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at low to mid latitudes and 
enhancements at high latitudes. Otherwise HF conditions mostly 
normal. Similar conditions are expected for the next three days 
with the chance of variable conditions at low and mid latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Apr     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
16 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
17 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed during local day for Equatorial 
regions as well as Northern AUS/Southern AUS and NZ regions. 
Enhanced conditions observed for Antarctic regions during first 
half of UT day. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days 
with the chance of MUF depressions for Equatorial down to Southern 
AUS regions during local day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    38300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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