[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 13 09:27:43 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, 
and is expected to remain low over the next few days with no 
active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed increased 
over the first half of the UT day then steadily decreased as 
the currently geoeffective coronal hole rotates beyond the west 
solar limb. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23233221
      Darwin               7   22133211
      Townsville           9   23233221
      Learmonth           15   23235330
      Camden               8   22233211
      Canberra             8   22233220
      Hobart               8   22133221
      Casey(Ant)          11   34323211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2210 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr     4    Quiet 
14 Apr     4    Quiet 
15 Apr     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased over the first half of the 
UT day. This combined with a period of southward IMF Bz resulted 
in an unsettled interval of geomagnetic conditions over the mid 
part of the UT day. Otherwise conditions were quiet. Solar wind 
parameters steadily declined over the second half of the UT day. 
Expect generally quiet conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild daytime depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal. Expect generally normal 
conditions next three days with the chance of variable conditions 
at low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times PNG/N Aus regions. 
Mild evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus region. Otherwise 
ionospheric conditions normal to enhanced. Expect mostly normal 
conditions next three days with the chance of variable conditions 
Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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