[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 5 09:32:37 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity continued its decline from 550km/s to 450km/s
at the time of this report with Bz fluctuating around +/- 2nT.
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 32232121
Darwin 6 22122122
Townsville 9 32232222
Learmonth 9 32232132
Camden 7 22232121
Canberra 8 32232121
Hobart 7 32232111
Casey(Ant) 11 33332131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2422 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 7 Quiet
06 Apr 6 Quiet
07 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be Quiet
for the next few days with solar wind speed returning to normal
levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions showed a recovery over the last 24 hours
with conditions returning to close to normal at all latitudes.
Moderate to strong Sporadic E was observed at low and mid latitudes
in the early hours of local night.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support showed a recovery over the last
24 hours with usable frequencies returning to close to normal
at all latitudes. Moderate to strong Sporadic E was observed
across Equatorial/Pacific, Northern and Middle Australian regions
in the early hours of local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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