[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 29 09:36:46 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has continued to decline and is currently 
325 km/sec. Recurring coronal hole will reach geo-effective position 
over the next 24 hours. As a result expect the solar wind speed 
to increase creating unsettled conditions for the geomagnetic 
field. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121011
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Learmonth            3   21111011
      Culgoora             4   11221121
      Camden               2   11121001
      Canberra             2   11121001
      Hobart               2   11121001
      Casey(Ant)           8   33321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   3201 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Sep    12    Unsettled 
01 Oct    16    active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled 
today. Due to a recurring coronal hole reaching a geo-effective 
position expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions over 
the next 1 to 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Fair           Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support has been observed in low 
and mid lattitudes over the last 24 hours. Expect this trend 
to continue over the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Sep    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep    -5    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    -5    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    -5    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions in Northern Australian and Equatorial 
regions remain depressed. HF conditions in the Southern Australian 
region are slightly depressed. This is expected to continue over 
the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    72000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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