[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 27 09:51:20 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is still elevated from the recurrent
coronal hole and is declining more slowly than expected. Vsw
has slowly declined to ~480km/sec, but it still believed likely
to return to average speeds around 350 km/sec within a day. IMF
Bz oscillated north-south widely during the day but has been
more southwards from ~20UT. So conditions currently favour merging
with the geomagnetic field, and there is already evidence of
resultant polar activity. AR910 has decayed to a plage region
with no flares recorded. Flare activity is expected to be nil
in the next 2-3 days in the absence of a new active region. A
CME from the eastern limb emerged from the SOHO spacecraft LASCO
C3 disc ~03UT. It is not expected to be geoeffective, but may
be from returning AR909, due back 28th Sept, or AR907, due back
29th Sept.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Darwin 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 22112221
Culgoora 5 12112222
Camden 5 22112211
Canberra 5 22212211
Hobart 6 22212212
Casey(Ant) 11 34-22222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1213 2012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
28 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
29 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has declined over the last 24 hours
but more slowly than expected. Solar wind speed is still elevated
from the recurrent coronal hole and is declining more slowly
than expected. IMF Bz oscillated north-south widely during the
day but has been more southwards from ~20UT. So conditions currently
favour IMF merging with the geomagnetic field, and there is already
evidence of resultant polar geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Fair-poor Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Fair-normal Normal Fair-poor
28 Sep Fair-normal Normal Poor-fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Low latitudes have again shown ionospheric depressions,
particularly during the local afternoon and was much deeper than
the previous day with F2 region being severely reduced. An HF
warning was issued and similar conditions may re-occur on the
27th although not expected to be as deep. This depletion is presumed
due to enhanced geomagnetic activity from high solar-wind speed.
This causes the equatorial fountain effect to draw F2 region
ionisation out from 15-20deg either side of the geomagnetic equator
up the geomagnetic field lines. Mid-latitudes appear to be almost
back to normal. The polar ionosphere is becoming disturbed due
to IMF BZ southward conditions coupled with high Vsw and density.
Sub-auroral oval regions appear to be undergoing significant
radio absorption.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 4 about 5% below predicted monthly values
28 Sep 8 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
29 Sep 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial latitudes (DWN, PNG, Niue, Nth QLD) have
again shown ionospheric depressions, particularly during the
local afternoon when the F2 region was greatly reduced. An HF
warning was issued yesterday and similar conditions may re-occur
on the 27th, although not expected to be as deep. This depletion
is presumed due to enhanced geomagnetic activity from high solar-wind
speed. The equatorial fountain effect draws F2 region ionisation
out from 15-20deg either side of the geomagnetic equator up the
geomagnetic field lines. Mid-latitudes appear to be almost back
to normal. The polar ionosphere is becoming disturbed due to
IMF BZ southward conditions coupled with high Vsw and density.
Sub-auroral oval regions (MQI, MAW) appear to be undergoing
significant
radio absorption, especially in the southern ocean (MQI) since
on the Macquarie Is riometer since ~2130UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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