[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 25 09:45:42 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               80/20
COMMENT: An Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) disturbance occurred 
from ~18UT on the 23rd to 07UT on the 24th. This was the precursor 
to a rise in solar wind speed from 400 to 700 km/sec associated 
with a recurrent coronal hole. During the IMF fluctuation the 
field strength increased to nearly 30nT and there were rapid 
fluctuations in the Bz component causing geomagnetic disturbances. 
This disturbance appears to be too soon after a Type II Radio 
Emission reported (Begin Time: 2006 Sep 23 1106 UTC Estimated 
Velocity: 711 km/s) and before a Type II radio sweep (24th ~1530UT 
with estimated shock speed of 660km/s), to be related to either. 
There is no information as yet on whether these Type II events 
produced geoeffective shock fronts but if they did their arrival 
would be expected in the next day or two. AR910 is the only active 
region on the disk and is not magnetically active (class alpha), 
producing only one B event. Solar wind speed remains high at 
700km/sec but IMF Bz is northwards so geomagnetic activity may 
slowly increase if high Vsw is sustained. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   34444212
      Darwin              18   44344213
      Learmonth           16   34344222
      Culgoora            14   34343212
      Camden              19   4--54112
      Canberra            20   34454212
      Hobart              19   34454112
      Casey(Ant)          21   45433233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Camden              65   (Active)
      Hobart              82   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   0121 1134     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The expected recurrent coronal hole has become geo-effective.

An Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) disturbance occurred from 
to a rise in solar wind speed from 400 to 700 km/sec associated 
with a recurrent coronal hole. During the IMF fluctuation the 
field strength increased to nearly 30nT and there were rapid 
fluctuations in the Bz component causing geomagnetic disturbances. 
Solar wind speed remains high at 700km/sec but IMF Bz is northwards 
so geomagnetic activity may slowly increase further if high Vsw 
is sustained. Observed solar Type II activity observed in the 
last 24-36 hours may be geoeffecive in the next 24-36 hours causing 
disturbances. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Fair           Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Nighttime depressions observed at low latitudes due 
to recent geomagnetic activity. Mid-latitudes appear to be holding 
but may depress with continued high solar wind speed and geomagnetic 
disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Sep    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep    12    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
26 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Sep    14    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread F may degrade communications on 25 Sep if recurrent 
coronal hole keeps solar wind speed high, geomagnetic activity 
elevated and the ionosphere disturbed. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:   13.6 p/cc  Temp:    30900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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