[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Sep             24 Sep             25 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010001
      Darwin               3   12111012
      Learmonth            2   22010000
      Culgoora             1   11010011
      Camden               1   11010001
      Canberra             1   10010001
      Hobart               1   11010000
      Casey(Ant)           3   11211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0111 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Sep    18    active 
24 Sep    11    Unsettled 
25 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 21 September 
and is current for interval 22-24 September. Moderately disturbed 
conditions expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm 
periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Sep    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    16100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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