[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Sep             10 Sep             11 Sep
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: No significant flare activity has been observed during 
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed continues to decline and 
is approximately 360km/s at this time. Over the next several 
days due to emerging flux regions solar activity may increase 
to low levels. LASCO C3 imagery showed CME erupting at 0418UT 
on the northwest limb, no associated activity noted, possibly 
farside activity. Small coronal hole will reach geoeffective 
position on 11 September. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Learmonth            1   11111000
      Culgoora             2   11111010
      Camden               9   32223222
      Canberra             2   12101000
      Hobart               2   12200100
      Casey(Ant)           9   32322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1111 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Sep     6    Quiet 
10 Sep     6    Quiet 
11 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: High speed solar wind stream from small coronal hole 
may cause a slight increase in geomagnetic activity on 11 September, 
otherwise expect quiet conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Sep    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Sep    18    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Sep    18    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Sep    16    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"