[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 2 09:47:23 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a notable C-class event at 0542UT from region 906 - as well as
numerous B-class events. Solar wind velocity remained relatively
unchanged, 380km/s at 0000UT and 360km/s at the time of this
report. Solar activity is expected to range from very low to
low over the next 24 hours, with possible C-class events from
region 906.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 22223333
Darwin 9 22223322
Learmonth 13 31223433
Culgoora 9 21223332
Camden 7 2-------
Canberra 10 21223333
Hobart 10 11223333
Casey(Ant) 13 33332323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1121 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Sep 7 Quiet
04 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Bz,
the north-south component of the IMF was predominently southward
for most of the UT day at and avg. of -5nT. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some isolated depressed periods observed for low latitudes.
Disturbed conditions observed for high latitudes. Mostly normal
HF conditions observed for mid latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some isolated depressed periods observed for Northern
Aus and Equatorial regions during local evenings. Disturbed
conditions observed for Antarctic regions with mostly normal
ionospheric conditions for Southern Aus and NZ regions.
Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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